The number of fish species at risk of extinction is five times higher than previously estimated, according to a new prediction because the researchers now predict that 12.7% of marine teleost fish species are at risk of extinction, a figure that is five times higher than the previous estimate of 2.5% by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The report also covers nearly 5,000 species that lacked an IUCN conservation status due to insufficient data.
| Date | August 29, 2024 |
| Source | PLOS |
| Summary | The “silent extinction” of 1,337 threatened species includes key fish families vital to reef ecosystems. So the number of fish species at risk of extinction is five times higher than previously estimated, according to a new prediction. |
If you want to know recent biology news like the number of fish species at risk of extinction is five times higher than previously estimated, according to a new prediction: Smell prepares nematodes and the human gut to combat infections, Mantis Shrimp-Clam Relationship Challenges a Biological Principle, Injury Dressings in First-Aid Kits Can Identify Shark Species After Bite Incidents, Harnessing big data helps scientists home in on new antimicrobials, New geological datings place the first European hominids in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, A New Rule of Biology Focusing on Evolution and Aging.
Why the number of fish species at risk of extinction is five times higher than previously estimated:
Researchers have predicted that 12.7% of marine teleost fish species face extinction, a rate five times higher than the previous 2.5% estimate by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Nicolas Loiseau and Nicolas Mouquet from the Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation, and Conservation (MARBEC) Unit in Montpellier, France, along with their team, published these findings on August 29th in the open-access journal PLOS Biology. Their study also includes nearly 5,000 species that lacked IUCN conservation status due to insufficient data.
The IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species monitors over 150,000 species to guide global conservation efforts. However, 38% of marine fish species—4,992 species at the time of this study—are considered Data-Deficient and do not receive an official conservation status or the associated protections. To improve conservation efforts, Loiseau and colleagues used a machine learning model combined with an artificial neural network to predict extinction risks for Data-Deficient species.
These models were trained using data on species occurrence, biological traits, taxonomy, and human usage from 13,195 species. They categorized 78.5% of the 4,992 species as either Non-Threatened or Threatened (including the Critically Endangered, Endangered, and Vulnerable IUCN categories). The number of predicted Threatened species increased fivefold, from 334 to 1,671, while the number of predicted Non-Threatened species rose by a third, from 7,869 to 10,451.
Predicted Threatened species typically had small geographic ranges, large body sizes, and low growth rates, with extinction risks also associated with shallow habitats. Hotspots for predicted Threatened species included the South China Sea, the Philippine and Celebes Seas, and the western coasts of Australia and North America. The researchers recommend increased research and conservation efforts in these regions.
They also observed significant changes in conservation priority rankings after incorporating IUCN predictions, suggesting that the Pacific Islands and the Southern Hemisphere’s polar and subpolar regions be prioritized for emerging at-risk species. Many species that remained Data-Deficient were found in the Coral Triangle, highlighting the need for further research there.
While the researchers acknowledge that models cannot replace direct evaluations of at-risk species, they argue that AI provides a rapid, extensive, and cost-effective way to assess extinction risks. Loiseau notes, “Artificial Intelligence (AI) enables reliable assessments of extinction risks for species not yet evaluated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Our analysis of 13,195 marine fish species reveals that the extinction risk is significantly higher than the IUCN’s initial estimates, rising from 2.5% to 12.7%. We propose incorporating recent advancements in forecasting species extinction risks into a new synthetic index called the ‘predicted IUCN status,’ which could complement the current ‘measured IUCN status.”
FAQ on the number of fish species at risk of extinction is five times higher than previously estimated
1. What is causing this increase in the extinction risk for fish species?
The increase in estimated extinction risk is due to more comprehensive assessments using advanced models, which include species that previously lacked sufficient data. Factors like habitat loss, overfishing, climate change, and pollution are key drivers of extinction risk for marine fish.
2. What are “Data-Deficient” species, and why are they important?
Data-Deficient species are those for which there is not enough information available to assess their conservation status. They are important because they make up a large portion of marine species, and their conservation needs are often overlooked. New research methods have now predicted the extinction risk for many of these species.